Evaluating The Role and Biases of Intuition in The Scenario Planning Process Through the III Approach

Abstract

The Power of Thinking Without Thinking, Malcolm Gladwell recounts the story of the Getty kouros in his book, an ancient Greek statue acquired by the J. Paul Getty Museum in 1985. Although initial scientific tests deemed it authentic, some experts sensed it was a forgery based on subtle, intuitive cues, a suspicion later confirmed through further testing. This example highlights how expertise and intuition can lead to swift, accurate conclusions, even when analytical methods suggest otherwise. In scenario planning, intuition can be similarly potent for recognizing emerging trends and projecting future outcomes. However, it carries risks of bias and limitations shaped by personal experiences and cultural perspectives. Blending intuitive insights with structured analytical methods is recommended to counter these risks. The "III Approach" enhances intuitive scenario planning by incorporating interaction, introspection, and imagination. This process begins with brainstorming to generate potential scenarios based on intuitive insights. Next, assumptions are examined through reflection and introspection to uncover underlying biases and beliefs that may shape intuitive thinking—meditation and introspection further aid in recognizing emotional influences on judgment. Finally, creative imagination is employed to reassess assumptions and envision new possibilities. Individuals can perceive the future from fresh perspectives by transforming habitual thought patterns. The III Approach serves as a practical framework for managing the potential pitfalls of intuition-based decision-making, offering a balanced method to harness intuition for creating credible, alternative future scenarios. Intuition becomes a valuable asset in strategic foresight and scenario planning through this structured yet flexible approach.

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